My old partner Sergio Zyman had a marketing theory about momentum. He took it from some hedge fund guys. In its simplest expression he used it to explain why it was easy to sell two more Cokes to someone who already drank four cokes a day, then it was to sell one more Coke to a person that only drank one soda a day. Consumption creates momentum at an individual and group level. It makes the product more acceptable. We never did figure out how to build an algorithm we could use to predict sales increases from momentum, but Scott Miller and Craig Binkley did help Pepsi (of all places) figure out how to build momentum for their core brand.
In any case, it looks like Romney Ryan 2012 has momentum going for it and it doesn’t look like Obama’s performance the other night did a lot to slow it done. Today the Drudge Report is trumpeting that the Real Clear Politics average shows Romney with an Electoral College lead for the first time in the race (he also has the lead in the popular vote) POLLS: Romney takes first lead in electoral college….
Major Garret noticed that it may be the Obama campaign is giving up on a few swing states http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017. If they are it might be a sign that money is getting tight in the campaign, or I might just think that because I got so many emails from the Obama campaign over the past week reminding me that my total donation balance is $0 in addition to a five email flurry last night telling me about an FEC deadline I’d never heard of before.
Take a look at the RCP state-by-state tracker for the big group of potential swing states. Obama looks to have lost significant ground in every state from where he stood in 2008, when we had one of the highest Democrat party voter turn-outs in the modern era. We all have noticed that broad-based enthusiasm for Obama seems down from 2008, now the polls are showing it http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html.
Karl Rove and others are making the case that Romney lead in the polls may represent an insurmountable lead in the polling booth http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/17/rove_no_candidate_who_has_led_with_50_of_more_in_likely_voter_poll_in_mid-october_has_lost.html. One other point of interest, I waited in line for 20 mins to vote early yesterday. That is as long as I normally wait to vote on Election Day, and the staff and facility was basically the same.
Remember, Obama’s strategy is to make Romney an unacceptable candidate and everyday Romney is ahead in the polls that job is harder.