Tag Archives: politics

No More All White, All Male Presidential Tickets

Rebranding thoughts from a #republican about #election2012.
There has been some talk of “rebranding” the Republican Party. It’s an interesting concept. Can you “rebrand” a political party? They tried that, didn’t they, at the Convention, trotting out a bunch of faces that looked different than the old, white Republican men. My old boss Sergio Zyman used to say that “The best way to build a big brand is to sell a bunch of stuff.” Stuff = Product, not Packaging. Rebranding the Republican Party might be a bigger job than the pundits think, but it’s likely a necessary one.
What Sergio meant was that consumers contact with the product is the primary experience that forms consumers’ concept of the brand. We often said this in response to clients that were asking for a new brand advertising campaign as a way to turn a company’s fortunes around. I always liked to start with the basics – the five P’s. Positioning. Product. Price. Place. Promotion. If the Republicans want to rebrand, they will have to go through the same process. I can think of two times in the recent past that Republicans have rebranded (sorry Reaganites, but the 1980s were not one of them). The first time the Republicans rebranded was when it was done to them, not by them, in the election of 1960 when the Kennedy’s embraced Martin Luther King and Civil Rights. The party of Lincoln became the party of Unequal Rights – a positioning it embraced with Nixon’s Southern Strategy and 52 years of votes since then. The party rebranded again in 1974 with Nixon’s impeachment trial when the moderate Eisenhower Republicans were driven out in an attempt to circle the wagons for a failed Presidency. The key message here is that rebranding can often be a traumatic event (or the result of a traumatic event), but most importantly it requires changes in the product (in this case policies and legal action). Rebranding the Republican Party, if it can be done, will require a lot more than putting some different hued and accented people in front of the camera.
Rebranding the Republican Party will mean holding true to the ideals of the party, but adjusting the policy platform to meet the current rational and emotional needs of voters (if we’re smart that will be Republican, Libertarian, Conservative, and Independent voters – everyone just slightly right of the liberal Democrat Party). For example, if Republicans want women to vote for them, they cannot have policy platforms or candidates who declare that women’s bodies have magical properties that can prevent pregnancy or that a woman must go through a dangerous medical procedure (pregnancy) because she was the victim of a crime. Obama’s negative advertising casting Romney Republicans as uncaring rich guys who fire workers, dislike contraception, and cut needed government programs to give money to the rich, worked in part because some Republicans were out in public looking like old white men and saying those exact things. Sometimes conservative media will ridicule a story in mass media that turns out not to be completely true in its detail, but emotional true to many people (think Tawana Brawley or Duke LaCrosse Team). Unfortunately, it is completely normal for people to be ruled by their emotions and to take rational facts and twist them, or disbelieve them, if it contradicts their deeply held beliefs. So long as there are fits and gasps of racism or sexism emerging from the party that embraced sexism and racism in the 60’s, for many people who haven’t shared a Republican life experience, those little fits and gasps make it much easier to emotionally believe false narratives like that used by the Obama campaign in 2012. Brands are a bundle of rational and emotional attributes. When seeking to rebrand, you have to consider both the intended meanings of a word, a color, or an action, as well as the unintended meaning that an off-target audience might feel. If you think that you can manage the reactions of that off-target group – that’s fine charge right ahead. But if you think you might have some sympathetic members in your own group to the off-target reaction, then you have a problem. Groupon found this out with their Superbowl add that angered Tibet’s supporters in the U.S. (a group that I think includes a lot of women – a prime target of Groupon’s coupons). The changes in policy that the Republican Party must consider should be vetted both against their deeply held beliefs, as well as the potential interpretations by Independents and specific demographic groups.
Can the Republicans rebrand? I don’t know. I do like the idea of a third party instead of rebranding. Maybe Republicans should be left alone to be Republicans. It seems like we already have a third party in the U.S. – its composed of Independents. All they need is an organization that can raise funds and set priorities. I think it would be great to have three parties in congress, then when committee seats are assigned no group would have a super-majority and there would have to be comprise (which I think would result in things getting done). However, let’s start with the assumption that Republicans (I am registered as a Republican) want to rebrand. The effort needs to start with the party getting people together to seriously think about how to translate the party’s principles into the modern era. That probably will require a combination shifting funding from advertising to thinking – more think tanks working on the right policy issues, with national and state-level idea sessions working from the reality on the ground (in demographics, in ideas, in economics, and in current law) to gain a new consensus of what it means to be a Republican. Once we get the product right, then we work on promoting it. One final Sergio story about that. We must always remember that promotion is intended to influence the masses; therefore it must speak to the masses (not to the elite few who fund it). Sergio used to tell a story about Roberto Goizueta (yes, he was a great leader) calling him in to review some advertising. After watching the TV ad, he said that his wife had seen it and didn’t like it. Sergio answered “that is good, because it’s not for her. There are very few of her, and many, many of the people it is intended to influence.”
If the Republicans want to make it easy for women, minorities, and youth to vote for their candidates, they will have to rebrand. The party must clearly break from its past in a way that rings true in the hearts of its members that fall into those demographics. That means news ideas (not new principals), new candidates (ones that can be trusted not to say stupid things about gender, race, or work ethic – they can still be white, but they must have true experience living as a non-white, non-male, non-wealthy member of American society), and most importantly new policies.

How The RNC Data Torpedo Blasted the SS Romney

I spent the last four days of the 2012 Presidential campaign knocking on doors, sorting campaign fliers, and manning the phones in the call center. I knew something was wrong with the Romney Campaign/RNC data when they dropped me off in my first neighborhood on my first day – more on that later. As the election results show, Obama knew what people to focus on and the Republicans let the loose poll data fool them about who was listening.

On my first day walking the streets and knocking on doors to Get Out The Vote (GOTV – which I thought was some online video channel at first, I admit), the van dropped me off with a map and a clip board with sheet full of names and little bubbles next to them like an SAT test. I was excited. How High-Tech! We had scan codes for each person and then we were going to bubble in their responses. I was told we were going to neighborhoods that had lots of registered Republicans but their turn-out in 2008 was lower than the average. We asked the people who opened the door (our sheets had the name of every registered Republican voter in the house) if they planned to vote for Romney and what time they would go to the polls (the rumor was that ORCA would let the auto-dialers feed them into the call schedule after 12 Noon if they hadn’t been to the polls). We bubbled in their responses. I imagine after I turned the sheets in, they would be scanned and all this great data would go into the system and drive a massive, personalized GOTV campaign. There seemed to be a small problem.

The first neighborhood I was dropped off in was Section 8 housing. “Wow,” I thought, surprised that this group was registered Republican, not surprised they didn’t vote for McCain Palin. Except it wasn’t true. Almost immediately it became clear that:

1. The people on my list didn’t live behind the doors I was knocking on
2. The people on my list that did live at the address, were not planning on voting for Romney
3. I didn’t have enough bubbles to accurately record what I was finding (so I’m sure those same people got phone calls later)

Later as we walked through other neighborhoods where there were a lot more Republicans and a few more people who planned to vote for Romney, I still had the same problem. The data I had was 30% wrong and there was no way to bubble in that many had already voted (I talked to some people the next day who had Early Voted, but still got six plus calls on election day to get out and vote). I had other complaints – including that the door hangars were too flimsy and in comparison to Obama lit, not that interesting and not that tailored to helping people get to the Polls.

So maybe it was just the walking lists that had weak data.

Nope, same thing in the call center. Lots of disconnected numbers, deceased or incapacitated people (very sad talking to the family members and having to ask “Yes, sorry to hear about the Alzheimer’s, but did they get the chance to absentee vote?”), and many, many Obama voters. Once again there was an electronic system for recording the results, but it didn’t have all the choices I would like, including the early vote answer. It seems to me that not being able to record early votes just leads to wasted resources chasing people who already voted (and possibly annoying them in ways that hurt the campaign).

Good data is hard to find. I noticed something that seemed odd to me from the Obama campaign in the last weeks: A big push to gets “Likes” for the campaign. I thought at first it was silly. Then I thought some more. A Facebook “Like” gives the App a lot of data about the “Liker.” If you can ingest that data, you could learn a lot from 750,000 people. Plus you can push “free” advertising messages into their News Feeds to their like-minded friends. That’s a smart strategy. It’s not what it seems Romney Ryan did with Facebook. All I got in my News Stream was more requests to “Like.” Wasted chance?

Finally, there was the vaunted ORCA effort at Romney Ryan. You can read about that debacle here http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/08/Orca-How-the-Romney-Campaign-Suppressed-Its-Own-Vote.

Net, net, the RNC needs to get serious about voter data in the modern era. There is lots and lots of data available, not only do you need to have it so you can husband your resources and spend better with effective media and contact targeting http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/266987-data-drove-obamas-ground-game, you need it to craft messages and contacts that are relevant and appreciated by voters. There were many Romney voters who told me to go away or hung up, just because they were tired of the multiple contacts without clear calls to action.

I am dying to get at the data collected through this past campaign and work on it to get a clean dataset, and then work with the party to put messages out and make contacts that will help make the Republican brand meaningful, relevant, and acceptable to the voters that we need to win national office.

Breakin’ or Fakin’ Romney’s Way?

My old partner Sergio Zyman had a marketing theory about momentum. He took it from some hedge fund guys. In its simplest expression he used it to explain why it was easy to sell two more Cokes to someone who already drank four cokes a day, then it was to sell one more Coke to a person that only drank one soda a day. Consumption creates momentum at an individual and group level. It makes the product more acceptable. We never did figure out how to build an algorithm we could use to predict sales increases from momentum, but Scott Miller and Craig Binkley did help Pepsi (of all places) figure out how to build momentum for their core brand.
In any case, it looks like Romney Ryan 2012 has momentum going for it and it doesn’t look like Obama’s performance the other night did a lot to slow it done. Today the Drudge Report is trumpeting that the Real Clear Politics average shows Romney with an Electoral College lead for the first time in the race (he also has the lead in the popular vote) POLLS: Romney takes first lead in electoral college….
Major Garret noticed that it may be the Obama campaign is giving up on a few swing states http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017. If they are it might be a sign that money is getting tight in the campaign, or I might just think that because I got so many emails from the Obama campaign over the past week reminding me that my total donation balance is $0 in addition to a five email flurry last night telling me about an FEC deadline I’d never heard of before.
Take a look at the RCP state-by-state tracker for the big group of potential swing states. Obama looks to have lost significant ground in every state from where he stood in 2008, when we had one of the highest Democrat party voter turn-outs in the modern era. We all have noticed that broad-based enthusiasm for Obama seems down from 2008, now the polls are showing it http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html.
Karl Rove and others are making the case that Romney lead in the polls may represent an insurmountable lead in the polling booth http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/17/rove_no_candidate_who_has_led_with_50_of_more_in_likely_voter_poll_in_mid-october_has_lost.html. One other point of interest, I waited in line for 20 mins to vote early yesterday. That is as long as I normally wait to vote on Election Day, and the staff and facility was basically the same.
Remember, Obama’s strategy is to make Romney an unacceptable candidate and everyday Romney is ahead in the polls that job is harder.